The Middle of This League Is a Parking Lot: Week 3 Power Rankings
Two weeks in, and six teams are sitting at exactly 1-1. Not 1-1 in the "one of these guys is clearly better" way, either. The gap between 3rd and 8th in this week's Power Score is about 12 and a half points per game, which is roughly one good tight end.
Austin Clout Demons is 2-0 and has scored the most points in the league doing it (302.28, which is 29 more than anybody else). That's the one undefeated record that looks the same from every angle. What r u doing step-substation? is also 2-0, but on 220.78 points and the second-lowest points against in the league (162.20, behind only The Disturbance Regime). Winning is winning. Just noting that one of these teams is beating people and the other one keeps catching people on the wrong week.
And a housekeeping note that made me laugh. Last week's recap called San Diego Football Team "the best loser in the league." This week the team is named THE San Diego Football Team. Capital THE. Somebody is reading. Respect.
Week 2, the short version
Five games, and an ugly one to start. The Disturbance Regime beat Rat Kings 73.70 to 55.48, a combined 129.18 in a league that averaged 101.48 per team. Rat Kings has a real excuse, and it's a good one: Puka Nacua was ruled out right before kickoff. That's a one-game absence rather than a lasting problem, but losing your WR1 after lineups lock is how you end up at 55 points. Disturbance takes the W and the shrug.
Skatteboys handled My Njigba Hurts 122.60 to 92.76, the biggest margin of the week at 29.84. THE San Diego Football Team put 131.18 on Tanjiro Kamado, and step-sub squeezed past Tony's Titans 100.32 to 84.74 in a game neither offense really showed up for.
Austin Clout Demons over JahJonJuwan Jameson, 131.52 to 117.68, was the best game on the board and the closest (13.84). It also cost Austin something. Dallas Goedert went down with an MCL sprain and is expected to miss a few weeks. Austin happens to roster three tight ends, so the practical damage is minimal: George Kittle slides in as the starter at 143.2 blended rest-of-season points and Isaiah Likely waits his turn. Fine problem to have.
Two guys made the week worth watching. Ja'Marr Chase (Tanjiro Kamado) went 7 catches, 75 yards, 2 touchdowns after the week 1 dud that had half the league sniffing around for a buy-low. Both of the last two articles here said don't panic-sell him. Those are the receipts, and Tanjiro's manager gets to keep his WR1.
Kenneth Walker III keeps making the draft look better every week. Justin Boone's Yahoo recap went as far as saying Walker's upside "is legitimately higher than Bijan Robinson's at this point. What a home run of a draft pick." That's an outside voice landing on a take this blog has been sitting on for a while.
Elsewhere: Jonathan Taylor (JahJonJuwan Jameson) put up 24 carries for 92 yards and 2 scores, which is now just what he does. Travis Kelce (THE San Diego Football Team) continues to justify that waiver add from two weeks back, with Boone noting he looks "slimmer and more fluid" and projecting him as a great TE play the rest of the way. Marvin Harrison Jr. (My Njigba Hurts) got the harshest line in the entire recap: "officially dead for fantasy. Cut him."
It was also a genuinely brutal week for injuries around the league, several of which land directly on rosters here. More on those below, team by team, and the biggest one, Jayden Daniels, gets its own note in the Titans entry.
Waiver wire was a ghost town by comparison. Rat Kings dropped Jayden Reed and nobody else moved a muscle.
The Power Rankings
1. Austin Clout Demons (2-0), Power 122.0, no move
Nobody's catching them on vibes. Austin leads in Power Score and in actual scoring at 151.1 points per game, and it starts Josh Allen at 355.4, the single biggest number in anybody's optimal lineup. Behind him: Derrick Henry (255.7), Javonte Williams (215.2), plus D'Andre Swift (204.2) and Jeremiyah Love (196.4) taking both flex spots. Four running backs in an eight-man lineup. Somebody drafted with a plan.
The one soft spot is receiver, where Rashee Rice (184.1) and Davante Adams (179.8) are good rather than scary. And don't overreact to Swift and Henry's quiet week 2. Boone's read is that a bad-weather defensive slog and a blowout script explain both. One more injury to file away: bench QB Jaxson Dart is dealing with a knee injury (reportedly a sprained MCL) that could cost him a few weeks. Doesn't move anything with Allen entrenched, but it's real value sitting on a bench that just got a little less valuable.
2. JahJonJuwan Jameson (1-1), Power 119.9, up 1
The best roster in the league on paper, full stop. A Roster PPG of 120.7 is the top mark, and Jahmyr Gibbs at 353.8 is the highest non-quarterback value anybody has. Add Jonathan Taylor at 291.0 and this backfield is the closest thing the league has to a cheat code.
The 1-1 record is just the Austin loss, and losing 117.68 to 131.52 is not evidence of anything wrong. What's worth watching is Jameson Williams (166.6, in the flex), who has now been bad two weeks running with panic building nationally. Boone's take is that this is simply what Jameson Williams is: 30-point weeks and sub-10 weeks are both perfectly normal outcomes for him, and there's no real decline underneath it. Also quietly useful here is Josh Downs, who led his team in targets, receptions and yards in week 2 and is already rostered.
3. THE San Diego Football Team (1-1), Power 119.0, down 1
The drop to third is a rounding-error move (119.0 against JahJonJuwan's 119.9), not a demotion. This team is scoring 136.7 per game, second-best in the league, and just put 131.18 on Tanjiro.
The Kelce gamble has landed. He's the entrenched starter now at 131.7 blended, ahead of Harold Fannin Jr., which wasn't true a week ago. Amon-Ra St. Brown (252.9) and Bijan Robinson (296.4) are the engine, though Bijan "barely escaped a fantasy dud" in a Falcons offense that's been genuinely bad. Michael Penix Jr. was expected back around now. If that happens, Bijan's receiving work is the thing to watch, and this roster's ceiling moves up with it.
Also: the rename. From best loser to definite article in one week. Never change.
4. Tanjiro Kamado (1-1), Power 115.1, no move
Held serve at 4th despite losing. Ja'Marr Chase (264.4) is back to being Ja'Marr Chase, and Kenneth Walker III (262.3) may be the best value on this roster relative to where he was drafted. Drake Maye at 308.7 is a top-tier quarterback number nobody talks about.
The lineup did shuffle underneath: Jaylen Warren (164.0) is the new RB2 in the optimal eight, with Jadarian Price falling out after a chest injury in Seattle's blowout win, one that also ended his workshare with Emmanuel Wilson taking over. The real drag is tight end, where Mark Andrews at 120.9 is still the weakest starting TE value in the league. For a team with this much receiver talent (Chris Olave at 222.0, Emeka Egbuka at 187.5), that's the position to go shopping for.
5. What r u doing step-substation? (2-0), Power 112.6, no move
Undefeated and ranked fifth, which is going to annoy somebody. The model likes this roster fine. Trey McBride (190.3) is the best tight end value in the league and Christian McCaffrey (262.8) still anchors the backfield alongside Omarion Hampton (213.9). It just doesn't see a juggernaut, and the 110.4 actual PPG backs that up.
The swing factor is Caleb Williams (298.2), who took a scary-looking hamstring injury against the Vikings. Reportedly a mild grade 1 strain with a real chance he plays week 3. If he doesn't, this lineup gets thin fast.
6. Skatteboys (1-1), Power 111.3, up 1
Quiet climber. The 122.60 win over My Njigba Hurts was the week's cleanest performance and it nudged Skatteboys past Tony's Titans. Lamar Jackson at 323.0 is the second-best QB value in the league and shows up in CBS's top rest-of-season trade tier, so expect offers.
The rest is a very sane roster. CeeDee Lamb (231.9), Brock Bowers (171.9), and a running back room of Cam Skattebo (200.0) and Bucky Irving (198.3) that's more solid than spectacular. Nothing here screams, but nothing here is broken either, and the week 3 projections make them the favorite in their matchup.
7. Tony's Titans (0-2), Power 107.8, down 1
Jayden Daniels went down with an elbow injury against the Eagles, and while nothing is official yet (no IR move on file, this is one analyst's bet on a possible season-ending surgery, not a team announcement), the market has already reacted: FantasyPros dropped him to QB22 rest-of-season and pulled him off the week 3 board entirely, while ESPN's own projection hasn't moved at all. The optimal lineup below already has Trevor Lawrence (296.8 blended, FantasyPros' own QB4 rest-of-season) starting over him, closing out a debate this blog has run for three straight weeks in the worst possible way.
The rest of the roster is not the issue. De'Von Achane (236.1) and Breece Hall (211.7) carry the backfield, and a receiver group of George Pickens (196.4) and Nico Collins (195.5), with Drake London (193.8) in the flex, is a perfectly respectable spine. Sam LaPorta at 138.7 is eighth of the ten starting tight ends, a small leak rather than a hole. The problem is output: 84.9 points per game through two weeks against a roster rate of 111.9, a 27-point gap that's the third-largest in the league. Two losses, both by double digits, both to teams that didn't have to play especially well.
8. My Njigba Hurts (1-1), Power 106.5, up 1
Moved up a spot despite getting handled by Skatteboys. The top end is legitimate: Jalen Hurts (309.4), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (255.7, also on CBS's top trade tier), and Ashton Jeanty (245.8). After that it thins out in a hurry.
Two open questions. A.J. Brown (152.7) is in the flex and still IR-eligible per ESPN, unresolved since last week and a genuine swing factor for this roster. And Marvin Harrison Jr. just got the "officially dead for fantasy, cut him" treatment, which makes the WR2 spot (Luther Burden III at 166.6) a real hole rather than a temporary one. There's a good team in here if the Brown situation resolves the right way.
9. The Disturbance Regime (1-1), Power 105.0, up 1
Won a game 73.70 to 55.48 and climbed a spot. Fantasy football.
The starting lineup is genuinely good. Jordan Love (273.5) is fully entrenched now, with Kyler Murray nowhere in the optimal eight. James Cook III (256.3), Chase Brown (246.1) and Kyren Williams (203.8) give this team three real backs, and Justin Jefferson (237.9) is exactly what he's always been. The one crack: flex piece Alec Pierce reinjured the ankle that bothered him all offseason and is facing an extended absence, a real problem on a team with the league's thinnest bench.
So why 9th? The depth bonus is 6.3, the smallest in the league by a wide margin, meaning one injury (like the one Pierce just had) turns this lineup into a problem. And the actual scoring is 75.1 per game, 35 points below the roster rate. Fix the bench and this is a middle-of-the-table team in a hurry.
10. Rat Kings (0-2), Power 103.8, down 2
Biggest faller of the week, and the most misleading ranking on the board.
Look at the lineup: Joe Burrow (296.4), Puka Nacua (256.3), Saquon Barkley (237.5), Travis Etienne Jr. (189.9), Mike Evans (169.3, who banged up his hip late in week 2 but wasn't considered a serious concern), Tyler Warren (150.1). That's a real team. The depth bonus of 35.1 is the largest in the league, meaning this is the roster best equipped to survive an injury. The roster rate of 110.6 only ranks eighth, so this isn't a juggernaut.
And the results are a disaster. 66.5 points per game, worst in the league, a full 44 points per game below what this lineup projects, which is the biggest gap between roster and reality anybody has. Some of that is bad luck. Nacua being ruled out minutes before kickoff in week 2 is not a roster-construction failure. The Jayden Reed drop, with no add showing yet, is the only move this team has made. Same framing as last week: deep roster, terrible results. At some point the results have to start arguing back.
Week 3: what to watch
The Disturbance Regime (1-1) vs What r u doing step-substation? (2-0). Projected 99.6 to 90.8. The 1-1 team is favored over the undefeated one, which is the kind of disagreement between standings and projections that tends to be right more often than it feels like it should be. Jordan Love is settled in as the starter. Caleb Williams' hamstring is the whole ballgame for step-sub.
Tony's Titans (0-2) vs THE San Diego Football Team (1-1). Projected 101.4 to 111.1. San Diego is the favorite but not by much, and an 0-2 team projected within 10 of a team scoring 136.7 a game is a reminder of how little separates the bottom from the middle here. Whether Lawrence looks like FantasyPros' QB4 or like a backup pressed into duty is the most interesting question on the slate.
Rat Kings (0-2) vs Skatteboys (1-1). Projected 99.6 to 104.4. Best spot on the board for Rat Kings to finally turn that depth into points, inside five points of a Skatteboys team the model actually likes this week. Nacua back in the lineup changes this entirely.
Tanjiro Kamado (1-1) vs JahJonJuwan Jameson (1-1). Projected 110.5 to 112.9, the tightest game of the week. Both teams climbed or held in this week's rankings and both are carrying two of the best non-QB values in the league in Gibbs and Chase. If Jameson Williams picks this week to hit one of his 30-point outcomes, it's over early.
My Njigba Hurts (1-1) vs Austin Clout Demons (2-0). Projected 105.7 to 109.5. Austin owns the best Power Score and the best actual scoring in the league, and My Njigba Hurts is a team whose ceiling still depends on how the A.J. Brown situation resolves. Austin is favored by under four, which says more about the lack of separation in this league than it does about Austin.
One last thing
CBS's Dave Richard made the point this week that rest-of-season trade value has nothing to do with what already happened, and that early-season overreactions plus the quarterback injury news make right now the best window to strike. His top tier is Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jahmyr Gibbs, Bijan Robinson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Ja'Marr Chase. Every one of them is rostered in this league, spread across six different teams.
Six teams at 1-1, six blue-chippers on six different rosters, and a trade market that hasn't seen a single move yet. Somebody's phone should be ringing.